Double Down

I said back in May that, based on my theory of legacy (both political parties always nominate the candidate with the strongest claim of legacy to the nomination) that Hilary would win the Dems crown (duh) but that John McCain would win the GOP title. McCain was cheated of the nomination by Rovian dirty tricks in 2000. Meanwhile the closest claim to legacy the rest of the field has is as second kissing cousins to the ghost of Ronald Reagan. Of course, right after I wrote this McCain’s candidacy seemingly tanked in the summer of his political discontent. And most wrote off the man from Arizona.

But since then the Thompson phenomenon has come—and largely gone. Fred Thompson’s campaign fell victim to a writers’ strike long before Monday’s strike officially began. It turned out that, after months of hype and hoopla, plain ‘ol Freddy has just not really had anything to say. Meanwhile even thoughts of a Giuliani candidacy has the religious right already talking rophylacticly (come on, religious right, shouldn’t you practice safe politics rather than rely on prophylactics? I mean, be consistent.) about running a true conservative independent candidate should his Rudster get the nod.

That leaves Romney as the only other real alternative to McCain, and I don’t think he’s got the legs to make the distance. And McCain may well prove to be the real come back kid of 2008. Read E.J. Dione’s piece on the resurgent McCain campaign in the Washington Post.

So I’m going double down on the McCain bet. And, just for fun, I’m calling the 2008 race as being between a Clinton/Clark Democratic ticket versus McCain/Huckabee.

How’s that for going out on the prophetic limb?

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6 Responses to “Double Down”

  1. Robert Says:

    McCain has had a recent uptick although i think that he is going to have a tough time getting back in front of Huckabee now that he has such strong grassroots momentum.

    See:
    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008__1/daily_presidential_tracking_polling_history

  2. Carl Luna Says:

    Huckabee won’t be the nominee. The party establishment will lock arms to block him like they did with McCain in 2000 and Pat Buchanan in 1996. Huckabee is too far to the right — he’s the ticking Goldwater bomb of the Republican 2008 field. If he did get the nomination, Republicans go down to their biggest electoral defeat since 1964. More likely, he reaches a veep deal with McCain, who needs to shore up the right wing to turn out the vote. But if Rudi is rude enough to get the nomination, I Like Mike will be the slogan of the religious right when they run him as a protest independent. In which case it’s 1968 and Geroge Wallace, only with a GOP twist. McCain/Huckabee is probably the only ticket that could give Hilary a real run for her money (and votes).

  3. mlaiuppa Says:

    I don’t think it will be McCain or Thompson.

    It’s going to be between Romney and Giuliani. And I think in the end the Republicans are going to swallow whatever it is they swallow and go with Giuliani. Not because they want him but because they think he is the most likely to sway Democrats and Undecideds away from Hillary in case she gets the nomination. If they choose Romney they’ll have their own party but are not likely to sway any Democrats or Undecideds no matter who the Democrats nominate. And we know it’s the Undecideds that determine a winner. A few party jumpers are cream.

    Even though I’m a Democrat I am one of the ones that doesn’t want Hillary. Not because she is a woman but because of her positions on a lot of issues. She is business as usual and I’ve had enough of that.

    However I will not vote Republican no matter who they nominate. So I’ll vote for Hillary before I’ll vote for Giuliani, Romney, McCain, Thompson or any other candidate the GOP puts up.

    I am still hoping for an Edwards/ Obama ticket.

  4. previous student Says:

    Professor Luna, do you remember the lecture about your nominations for the 2008 presidency? You concluded that it will be Clinton and Giuliani nominated and Clinton will win. You had a very strong reason and a great analysis of previous elections that deducted that Clinton would win. What has happened from the 2006-2007 school year that changed the idea that Mccain would beat Giuliani for the nomination? And do you still believe that Clinton will win?

  5. I Couldn’t Have Said It Better « Political Lunacy Says:

    […] I’ve been saying about McCain as top of the ticket since May and about Huckabee as Veep for a month. The McCain nod is based on my theory of legacy candidates (such as McCain) historically doing […]

  6. Eric Says:

    Hillary, once you knock the inexperienced candidate off the block, please choose Wesley Clark as your VP ok?

    His Military Political Experience will help us get out of Iraq and avert war with Iran. Plus he is more in tune on social issues with mainstream america and not the far right loons.


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